Following a chaotic primary campaign, the race to succeed outgoing California Governor Gavin Newsom has narrowed down to two primary candidates: Democrat Xavier Becerra, a three-decade veteran of state and federal politics and former U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary, and Republican Steve Hilton, a former Fox News host and advisor to U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron. Given that Democratic voters outnumber Republicans by a nearly 2-to-1 ratio in deep-blue California and that Kamala Harris comfortably carried the state in the 2024 presidential election, Becerra holds a strong statistical advantage, backed by recent independent polls showing him with a double-digit lead over Hilton.
Democratic Frontrunner: Xavier Becerra
Becerra, 68, secured the Democratic frontrunner spot after surging in the primary following the withdrawal of former Rep. Eric Swalwell. Emphasizing his working-class roots as the son of Mexican immigrants in Sacramento and his extensive background including serving as California’s first Latino Attorney General where he frequently challenged federal policies Becerra has maintained a relatively low profile and avoided over-promising specific metrics. His campaign focuses heavily on:
Housing Affordability: Declaring an immediate state of emergency on day one to streamline regulations, eliminate legal loopholes, and fast-track 40,000 affordable housing units sitting in the approval pipeline.
Energy Innovation: Proposing a first-in-the-nation “power hour” plan to give residents up to two hours of free electricity in the middle of the day to incentivize shifting appliance usage outside peak 4 p.m. to 9 p.m. grid hours.
Republican Challenger: Steve Hilton:
Hilton, 57, finished second in the June primary and is running on a platform aimed at ending “16 years of one-party rule.” Endorsed by President Donald Trump, Hilton presents himself as a pragmatic problem-solver appealing across party lines to voters concerned about the state’s economic trajectory. His signature policy proposals include:
The “Califordable” Agenda: Creating an “Office of Fun and Freedom” to audit nightlife and business regulations within his first 100 days, and constructing at least 10 new master-planned cities to expand homeownership access.
Overhauling State Services: Pledging to abolish the Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV) via the “No More DMV Act,” decentralizing vehicle registrations and licenses to counties or private local service centers, and capping annual registration fees at a flat $73.
Political Dynamics and Path Forward:
While Hilton has attempted to pivot away from a purely partisan narrative by emphasizing innovative retail politics and addressing the state’s high tax and regulatory burdens, political analysts note he faces an uphill battle in a heavily blue state deeply influenced by national midterm dynamics and debates surrounding Donald Trump. Conversely, Becerra’s strategy relies heavily on maintaining a cautious campaign profile, limiting debate exposure, and keeping voter focus on broader Democratic advantages ahead of the November election.
