Artificial intelligence is increasingly changing the way companies hire, with younger workers appearing to face the sharpest impact in jobs where AI can automate tasks. A new Stanford study found that employment among workers aged 22 to 25 in highly AI-exposed occupations declined by about 11% between November 2022 and June 2026, while employment in less AI-exposed jobs for the same age group grew by roughly 10%. The findings point to a widening divide in the early stages of workers’ careers, with researchers noting that companies appear to be hiring fewer young people for roles most exposed to AI, rather than simply replacing existing employees with technology.
Study Background and Methodology:
The study, titled Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of Artificial Intelligence, was conducted by Stanford researchers Erik Brynjolfsson, Bharat Chandar, and Ruyu Chen. The researchers examined payroll data from ADP covering millions of US workers through June 2026. The pattern became apparent after 2022, when generative AI systems such as ChatGPT became widely available and businesses began experimenting more extensively with the technology.
Key Findings on Age and AI Exposure:
According to the study, employment for 22 to 25-year-olds in occupations most exposed to AI fell by around 11% between November 2022 and June 2026. By contrast, employment among workers in the same age group in occupations less exposed to AI increased by approximately 10%. That represents a 21-percentage-point difference between the two groups.
The broader employment figures also show a significant age gap. Across the ADP sample, employment among 22 to 25-year-olds was about 2% lower in June 2026 than it was in November 2022. During the same period, employment among older workers increased, with employment for people aged 35 to 40 rising by as much as 11%.
Impact on Hiring and Entry-Level Roles:
The study suggests that the changing employment pattern is being driven largely by hiring decisions rather than widespread layoffs among young employees already working in AI-exposed occupations. Instead, companies appear to be reducing the number of younger workers they bring into these roles.
This distinction is important because entry-level positions are often the starting point of a longer professional career. Young workers typically use these jobs to develop technical knowledge, workplace experience, and other skills before moving into positions with greater responsibility. If companies continue to reduce entry-level hiring in occupations where AI can perform a significant share of routine tasks, researchers warn that younger workers could find it harder to get the experience needed to advance, raising questions about whether AI could alter the traditional career ladder.
Task Nature and Future Prospects:
The research also found that exposure to AI does not automatically translate into declining employment, as the effect depends partly on how the technology is being used. Employment has fallen more noticeably in jobs where AI can automate tasks that were previously performed by workers, while occupations where AI is used to assist employees rather than replace their work have shown more stable employment or growth, particularly among experienced professionals.
One possible explanation is that many entry-level roles involve routine, structured, and clearly defined tasks that current AI systems can increasingly handle. Experienced employees, meanwhile, often bring years of industry knowledge, judgement, and practical expertise that AI can complement rather than easily replace. For younger workers, the findings suggest that simply choosing a career in a technology-heavy field may not be enough to guarantee strong employment prospects, and the nature of the tasks within a job will become increasingly important.
Ultimately, the Stanford researchers’ findings do not suggest that AI will eliminate opportunities for an entire generation. Instead, they highlight a changing labour market where the earliest steps into a career may be undergoing some of the biggest changes, presenting a challenge for workers aged 22 to 25 to develop the experience and skills that allow them to perform tasks less likely to be replaced by technology.
